Golden Paper Insight: China’s Paper Market Stabilizes as Prices Begin to Rise

In mid-October, China’s paper industry saw a wave of price adjustments. Major mills across the country raised prices for key grades such as kraft linerboard and corrugated paper, signaling a market recovery after several months of decline. This upward movement has attracted wide attention from both domestic and overseas buyers.

According to Golden Paper’s market observation, the paper industry in Q3 remained in a cyclical adjustment phase, with clear differences between pulp-based and recycled paper products:

Pulp-based grades — such as offset paper and coated paper — have seen cost improvement as pulp prices stayed low. Product prices rebounded slightly, and mill profitability became more stable.

Recycled grades — including duplex board grey back and grey chipboard — are in a “stable price, weak margin” stage. Mills are still reducing inventories, and although turnover days have fallen, demand recovery remains slow.

Overall, the industry appears to be at the bottom of the cycle, and a gradual rebound is expected in the coming quarter. Packaging paper demand is supported by the recovery of e-commerce and logistics activities, while cultural and printing papers remain stable due to steady textbook and publishing orders.

On the supply side, new capacities are being released, which may temporarily increase market pressure. However, supply and demand are gradually reaching balance. Golden Paper expects paper prices to rise moderately in Q4, supported by production costs and improving downstream demand.

Looking ahead to 2026, the market may enter a new cycle driven by lower costs and stronger demand. Global pulp supply growth remains limited, and overseas mills have scheduled intensive maintenance next year, narrowing the room for pulp price drops. At the same time, government measures to stimulate domestic consumption are boosting demand for packaging and specialty papers.

Challenges still exist — new production capacity may delay the pace of recovery, and traders remain cautious with inventory levels. The key for steady growth lies in efficient inventory management and long-term supplier cooperation.

At Golden Paper, we believe that scale, cost efficiency, and product diversity will be the main drivers for success in the next phase of the paper cycle. With years of experience in paper production and export, Golden Paper remains committed to providing stable supply, flexible solutions, and long-term value for our global partners.