Global Pulp Market 2026: Structural Shift with Tighter Supply and Uneven Demand

In 2026, the global pulp market is moving away from demand-led growth toward a more complex structure shaped by supply disruptions, cost pressure, and regional demand gaps. For buyers in packaging, printing, and tissue, this means procurement decisions require closer attention to both fiber availability and price cycles.

Supply-side changes are driving the market. Indonesia's cancellation of pulpwood concessions and the delay of APP's OKI II project are expected to reduce hardwood pulp supply by nearly 770,000 tons, pushing inventories below balanced levels.

Softwood pulp, however, remains relatively oversupplied, with high inventory levels. This widening gap is reshaping pricing dynamics and sourcing strategies. At the same time, high-cost capacity in Europe and North America continues to exit the market, adding volatility to global supply.

China continues to anchor global demand, with pulp imports up 7.1% in 2025. Tissue demand stays relatively stable, supported by seasonal consumption and exports, while uncoated paper and paperboard show weaker recovery.

In contrast, Europe and North America face softer seasonal demand, with port inventories above historical averages, limiting short-term price momentum.

Rising energy, freight, and wood chip costs are reinforcing the cost floor for pulp prices. While the market may face pressure in the second quarter due to seasonal slowdown, a recovery is expected later in the year.

Current estimates suggest hardwood pulp may average around USD 600/ton in 2026, while softwood pulp could reach about USD 705/ton, with the price gap narrowing.

With margins under pressure and supply risks increasing, 2026 is a critical year for procurement strategy. Monitoring fiber supply, regional price differences, and inventory cycles will be key to managing cost and ensuring stable supply.

As a reliable global supplier, Golden Paper helps customers navigate market volatility with stable sourcing channels and consistent product quality, supporting more flexible and efficient purchasing decisions.