Europe Slows, Packaging Holds: 2025 Industry Insight

In 2025, Europe’s paper industry returned to contraction. According to data from the Confederation of European Paper Industries, total paper and paperboard production fell 1.5% year-on-year to 77.6 million tons. After a sharp 12.9% drop in 2023 and a temporary rebound in 2024, the sector is once again under pressure.

The challenges are structural. Weak economic growth, continued supply-chain destocking, and high energy and manufacturing costs have limited profitability and capacity utilization. At the same time, regulatory burdens are rising. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), scheduled for full implementation in 2026, will increase compliance complexity and cost exposure for producers and exporters.

Demand remains soft. Apparent consumption declined 2.2% in 2025, with writing and printing paper continuing its structural decline.

Packaging Paper Becomes the Stabilizer

Despite overall weakness, packaging grades showed resilience. Packaging paper and paperboard now account for 63.9% of Europe’s total production, while printing paper has declined to 20.8%, highlighting an accelerating structural shift.

Within packaging:

Containerboard for transport packaging grew 1.7%, supported by steady e-commerce and logistics demand.

Retail packaging board declined 5.6% due to weak consumer recovery.

Paper for shopping bags increased 1.0%, driven by sustainability policies and plastic substitution trends.

Recovered fiber usage related to packaging also remained stable, reinforcing packaging’s central role in Europe’s circular economy model.

Global Contrast: China as a Growth Engine

Globally, paper production declined slightly by 0.3% in 2025, with the U.S. and Japan reporting contractions. In contrast, China recorded 2.9% growth, supported by strong domestic packaging demand and product upgrading toward higher-value grades.

As European capacity tightens and compliance costs rise, export flows are shifting. Supply gaps are emerging in certain markets, creating opportunities for stable and competitive international suppliers.

Golden Paper Perspective

For global buyers, 2025 signals a rebalancing of supply chains. Packaging paper has become the structural backbone of the industry.

At Golden Paper, we see this transition as a long-term realignment rather than a short-term cycle. Strengthening capacity stability, enhancing product differentiation, and aligning with global sustainability requirements will define competitiveness in the years ahead.

The transformation of the global paper trade is underway, and adaptability will determine leadership.