1. Wood pulp:
The acceleration of the rise from January 2020 is mainly due to the driving of the futures market, as well as the long-term low prices of pulp mills and distributors, and the strong willingness to increase prices, which will also erode the profitability of wood pulp paper manufacturers in the short term. The current port pulp inventory is still 1 million tons compared to the beginning of 2017 (the starting point of the previous round of market), and the inventory pressure is relatively high, which may suppress the pulp price in the future. Therefore, the short-term pulp price may have the risk of retreat. The current port inventory is still high, and the pulp price has risen too quickly or has broken the balance of supply and demand in stages.
2. Wood pulp papermaking:
Cultural paper belongs to the category of bulk paper with a weaker growth rate, especially the double offset paper. The growth rate has been slow in the second half of 20 years. The growth rate has been accelerated since January 21. If the pulp price can remain high, it is expected to achieve a second increase in papermaking prices. It is good for leading paper companies with a high proportion of self-made pulp. The current papermaking industry has no major risks in terms of the large production cycle and inventory cycle, and the demand for repair is obvious. Regardless of whether the pulp price rises, there is a basis for paper prices to rise. Therefore, this round of paper prices is independent of pulp prices. If the pulp prices retracement, the upward trend of paper prices will not be changed.
Post time: Aug-15-2021